While we all want truth in the end, we may need to use speculation, fantasy and hypothesis on the way there.
Before we take action, we like to feel that we have the truth. Unfortunately, this is not always possible and we may need to take action when short of the truth. This means risk. We need to design our actions to minimise the risk.
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There is a skill in dealing with uncertainty. It is always excellent to seek the truth, but we also need to be able to deal with half-truths and uncertainties.
There are some people who succeed when things are going very well. There are even people who succeed when things are going badly. There are fewer people who succeed in times of great uncertainty. Making decisions and plans in times of uncertainty is difficult and requires far more skill.
We are used to uncertainty when dealing with the future, but less so when dealing with the present. If there were a cure for an illness which might work, would you try it? Most people would probably try that cure. If there were a cure which might do you a lot of harm, would you try it? Probably not.
Rumours may be half true or even less than that. How should we treat rumours? Here we have a situation where the descriptive word 'rumour' indicates that we should pay heed to it but not fully believe it. While we have this clearly descriptive term for uncertainty of information, we do not have an equivalent term for action in an uncertain situation. We can fill our minds with possibilities and 'maybes'. They then function as the environment in which we think, decide and act. We do not take action because of the uncertainties, but we allow them to influence our actions and help us design safeguards.
'Possible' may seem to be something that is low on the scale of probable. It is better to treat it as something totally different. 'Possible' means it is just possible. It has no relevance on the probable scale. There can be a probable hypothesis which is a reasonable (but unproved) hypothesis. There can be a possible hypothesis which is just speculation.
The possibility scan should be as wide as possible. When considering possible explanations, you need to look at all possibilities. Once you have seen a possibility, then - and only then - can you see things that support that possibility. When you look for 'probable' explanations, you are working within your present knowledge and perceptions, which form the basis for any judgment of probability. With 'possibility' your perception is enlarged by the possibility that you see. With probability, your perception is narrowed by your existing knowledge.
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