retail management

The changing of the guard at Britain's supermarket giants poses the obvious question. One lord, Sainsbury, has been followed into retirement by another, Tesco arch-rival MacLaurin: Asda's Archie Norman has turned deep attention to Tory politics. The question is whether their successor managements will succeed in both senses.

In this business, heirs have a huge advantage: relative stability. Fortunes ebb and flow, but by and large the sector's leaders survive and prosper. Tesco, Asda, Sainsbury, Safeway, Kwik Save, etc. have advanced through decades in which, for sad example, every single British car company has vanished or been absorbed by foreigners.

Kwik Save, true, is struggling to define its role and restore its lustre. But it's 24 years since Albert Gubay quit the chain he founded a decade before. Rich cash flows and strong customer franchises, renewed weekly by food shopping, provide a strong platform on which able managers like Norman can build spectacular recoveries. His close colleague, Allan Leighton, has an inheritance which non-food retailers - for instance, in clothing - can only envy.

Yet stability isn't all. Supermarketeers deserve high praise for their electronic and other innovations; for their expansionary thrust; and for their competitive energy. The last quality should really be first. Because the sector has seen relatively few takeovers (unlike cars), the battle rages between several equals whose strategies and tactics have been sharpened by each other's successes.

The competition is so close that over two whole years, 1994-96, according to Neilsen, changes in household penetration among all shoppers by the Big Five ranged only from -3% (Somerfield) to +1%. That was the sole gain - recorded by Asda. Since main shopper loyalty also rose (to 70%), the Norman-Leighton style, based firmly on putting people first, plainly still pays.

There's no more reason to fear relative failure than at Tesco. The conditions for successful continuity also exist at Sainsbury and other relative laggards: especially if their managements master the lessons of mobilising employee power. In this competitive bear-garden, the person at the top counts for plenty: but ultimately the people are decisive - all the way down.